Oregon Labor Market Information System
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New Occupational Projections Show Growth in All Broad Occupational Groups
by Andrew R Crollard
Published Apr-5-2012

 
Every two years the Oregon Employment Department publishes 10-year projections for industries and occupations. The most recent cycle covers the 2010 to 2020 period. The purpose of these projections is to aid job seekers, students, business owners, and policy makers when making decisions about which types of programs educational funding dollars should be allotted to, and what careers to pursue. These projections are not an exact prediction of what will happen over the decade, but rather a guideline for where the Oregon Employment Department thinks the industry and occupational make-up of our state and regional economies are heading.

Growth vs. Replacement Openings
 
There are two main components to these occupational projections: growth openings and replacement openings. Growth openings are positions that are expected to be created due to the economy expanding. They're brand new positions that will need to be filled. Statewide, it is projected that there will be almost 300,000 growth openings created over the 10-year period. Replacement openings are positions that already exist and are expected to need to be filled. Replacement openings can occur when someone changes occupation, moves to a different area, or leaves the labor force altogether. Oregon is projected to have over 425,000 replacement openings over the decade. These two types of openings can be added together to find total openings for each individual occupation and occupational group. This results in a total of over 725,000 openings available in Oregon over the 2010 to 2020 period.

Region 13
 
Region 13 consists of Baker, Union, and Wallowa counties and is projected to have 2,003 growth openings, or an 11.1 percent increase in jobs. Growth is expected across all broad occupational groups as seen in Table 1. Production occupations, such as bakers, machinists, and welders, are predicted to have the fastest growth rate (18.4%), but service occupations, such as janitors, cooks, and bartenders, are predicted to have the most growth openings (324). In addition to the growth openings, there are projected to be 4,563 replacement openings in Region 13 over the decade. Growth and replacement openings combined results in over 6,500 total openings in Region 13, with service occupations having the most openings (1,293).

In addition to the broad occupational projections, we also create projections for specific occupations. In Region 13, assemblers, multi-task or team (97 openings) was the occupation projected to have the most growth openings, followed by registered nurses (54) and general office clerks (51). Despite their large projected growth, none of those three occupations were projected to be in the top three for total openings over the decade. Instead, occupations that have larger numbers of employed to begin with are projected to need more replacement openings resulting in more total openings. Cashiers (221 openings), waiters and waitresses (206), and retail salespersons (206) were projected to have the most total openings over the decade.

Table 1
Employment by Major Occupational Group, Region 13
        Percent Growth Replacement Total
Group 2010 2020 Change Change Openings Openings Openings
Management, Business, and Financial 1,122 1,249 127 11.3% 132 262 394
Professional and Related 2,869 3,055 186 6.5% 206 714 920
Health Care 1,464 1,722 258 17.6% 258 274 532
Service 3,159 3,482 323 10.2% 324 969 1,293
Sales and Related 1,570 1,703 133 8.5% 136 525 661
Office and Administrative Support 2,660 2,961 301 11.3% 319 591 910
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 547 640 93 17.0% 93 170 263
Construction and Extraction 836 957 121 14.5% 121 197 318
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 653 714 61 9.3% 68 156 224
Production 1,280 1,515 235 18.4% 236 282 518
Transportation and Material Moving 1,449 1,602 153 10.6% 153 386 539
Nonclassifiable 446 458 12 2.7% 12 37 49
Total All Occupations 18,055 20,058 2,003 11.1% 2,058 4,563 6,621
Region 14
 
Region 14 consists of Grant, Harney, and Malheur counties, and is projected to have 1,687 growth openings, or a 9.1 percent increase in jobs between 2010 and 2020. Growth is expected across all broad occupational groups as seen in Table 2. Health care occupations, such as pharmacists, registered nurses, and dental hygienists, are expected to have the fastest growth rate (14.8%), and service occupations are expected to have the greatest number of growth openings (287). In addition to the growth openings, 4,587 replacement openings are projected over the 10-year period. A total of more than 6,200 openings are projected from 2010 to 2020, with service occupations having the most total openings (1,206).

In Region 14, retail salespersons (56 openings) was the specific occupation projected to have the most growth openings, followed by combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food (46) and fork lift, industrial truck and tractor operators (45). Similar to Region 13, the occupations with the most total openings are largely dominated by occupations that will have the most replacement openings. Cashiers (247 openings); retail salespersons (221); and farmworkers and laborers for crops, nurseries, and greenhouses (178) are projected to have the most total openings over the decade.

Table 2
Employment by Major Occupational Group, Region 14
        Percent Growth Replacement Total
Occupational Group 2010 2020 Change Change Openings Openings Openings
Management, Business, and Financial 892 965 73 8.2% 78 199 277
Professional and Related 2,893 3,022 129 4.5% 152 733 885
Health Care 1,436 1,648 212 14.8% 212 270 482
Service 3,237 3,523 286 8.8% 287 919 1,206
Sales and Related 1,513 1,663 150 9.9% 151 518 669
Office and Administrative Support 2,278 2,515 237 10.4% 251 511 762
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 1,592 1,738 146 9.2% 146 467 613
Construction and Extraction 506 566 60 11.9% 60 112 172
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 717 792 75 10.5% 81 167 248
Production 966 1,079 113 11.7% 114 218 332
Transportation and Material Moving 1,435 1,578 143 10.0% 147 387 534
Nonclassifiable 500 508 8 1.6% 8 86 94
Total All Occupations 17,965 19,597 1,632 9.1% 1,687 4,587 6,274