OLMIS

by Andrew R Crollard
Published Apr-5-2012

Growth vs. Replacement Openings Region 13 Region 14

Every two years the Oregon Employment Department publishes 10-year projections for industries and occupations. The most recent cycle covers the 2010 to 2020 period. The purpose of these projections is to aid job seekers, students, business owners, and policy makers when making decisions about which types of programs educational funding dollars should be allotted to, and what careers to pursue. These projections are not an exact prediction of what will happen over the decade, but rather a guideline for where the Oregon Employment Department thinks the industry and occupational make-up of our state and regional economies are heading.

There are two main components to these occupational projections: growth openings and replacement openings. Growth openings are positions that are expected to be created due to the economy expanding. They're brand new positions that will need to be filled. Statewide, it is projected that there will be almost 300,000 growth openings created over the 10-year period. Replacement openings are positions that already exist and are expected to need to be filled. Replacement openings can occur when someone changes occupation, moves to a different area, or leaves the labor force altogether. Oregon is projected to have over 425,000 replacement openings over the decade. These two types of openings can be added together to find total openings for each individual occupation and occupational group. This results in a total of over 725,000 openings available in Oregon over the 2010 to 2020 period.

Region 13 consists of Baker, Union, and Wallowa counties and is projected to have 2,003 growth openings, or an 11.1 percent increase in jobs. Growth is expected across all broad occupational groups as seen in Table 1. Production occupations, such as bakers, machinists, and welders, are predicted to have the fastest growth rate (18.4%), but service occupations, such as janitors, cooks, and bartenders, are predicted to have the most growth openings (324). In addition to the growth openings, there are projected to be 4,563 replacement openings in Region 13 over the decade. Growth and replacement openings combined results in over 6,500 total openings in Region 13, with service occupations having the most openings (1,293).

In addition to the broad occupational projections, we also create projections for specific occupations. In Region 13, assemblers, multi-task or team (97 openings) was the occupation projected to have the most growth openings, followed by registered nurses (54) and general office clerks (51). Despite their large projected growth, none of those three occupations were projected to be in the top three for total openings over the decade. Instead, occupations that have larger numbers of employed to begin with are projected to need more replacement openings resulting in more total openings. Cashiers (221 openings), waiters and waitresses (206), and retail salespersons (206) were projected to have the most total openings over the decade.

Region 14 consists of Grant, Harney, and Malheur counties, and is projected to have 1,687 growth openings, or a 9.1 percent increase in jobs between 2010 and 2020. Growth is expected across all broad occupational groups as seen in Table 2. Health care occupations, such as pharmacists, registered nurses, and dental hygienists, are expected to have the fastest growth rate (14.8%), and service occupations are expected to have the greatest number of growth openings (287). In addition to the growth openings, 4,587 replacement openings are projected over the 10-year period. A total of more than 6,200 openings are projected from 2010 to 2020, with service occupations having the most total openings (1,206).

In Region 14, retail salespersons (56 openings) was the specific occupation projected to have the most growth openings, followed by combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food (46) and fork lift, industrial truck and tractor operators (45). Similar to Region 13, the occupations with the most total openings are largely dominated by occupations that will have the most replacement openings. Cashiers (247 openings); retail salespersons (221); and farmworkers and laborers for crops, nurseries, and greenhouses (178) are projected to have the most total openings over the decade.