OLMIS

by Guy Tauer
Published Feb-7-2012

Moderate Growth Projected Overall Health Care Among Fastest Growing Occupations No Demand? Education High, Medium or Low Wage Occupations? Summary More Information

Every other year, the Oregon Employment Department undertakes the task of projecting industry and occupational employment 10 years into the future. These employment projections are developed with several goals in mind. They are not calculated to pinpoint precise employment levels 10 years down the road, but rather to point students, job seekers, career changers, counselors, planners, policy makers, business leaders, and others in the right direction when making career planning and educational funding decisions.

This is the second of two articles detailing the South Coast's 2010 to 2020 employment projections. The first article was published last month and focused on industry employment projections.

Highlights in the 2010 to 2020 occupational employment projections include: new and replacement job openings expected to the tune of just over 10,000 during this period; health care occupations will be the fastest growing; and all broad occupational categories are expected to grow. But before we get too carried away with the highlights, it is important to note that employment in 2010 was 2,100 lower than in 2008, and despite moderate growth between 2010 and 2020, more than one out of three occupations is expected to have less employment in 2020 than it did in 2008.

Every broad occupational group should add jobs over the decade between 2010 and 2020, but this reflects the long-term, bigger-picture trend over this decade only. Keep in mind the severe employment dip that occurred just before the start of this period. A 10.6 percent growth rate over 10 years is not too bad, but given the ground that needs to be made up to climb out of the hole left by the Great Recession, it puts a damper on the rate.

The Great Recession eliminated many jobs, and it is going to take years to recover. Even with the 10.6 percent growth rate, getting back to pre-recession levels won't happen in the next decade for many occupations. When analyzing the current projections data, looking at the employment levels in 2008 compared to those in 2010 and in 2020 helps paint a clearer picture of the employment situation.

Employment in 2008 was 30,016. By 2010, it fell to 27,900. Although it is projected to rise to over 30,800 by 2020, of the 541 occupational categories, 221 are projected to have a lower level of employment in 2020 than they did in 2008. For example, carpenters had a 2008 employment level of 220 and fell to 175 in 2010. In 2020, the level is projected to be just 194. There were 96 forester jobs in 2008 and only 46 in 2010, and just 48 jobs are anticipated in 2020. Automotive service technicians dropped from 106 in 2008 to 69 in 2010 and there are expected to be 76 at the end of the decade. The list goes on.

On the positive side, the remaining 320 occupational categories are expected to hold their own or increase employment by 2020. In addition to growth job openings, such as those caused by a new business opening or an existing business expanding, more than 7,000 job openings are expected due to the need to replace workers who leave their occupation (Table 1). They could leave for a variety of reasons, including retirement. The baby boom retirement bubble is here, though many boomers have reconsidered their plans as their retirement fund levels dropped, their spouses lost their jobs, or just due to the economic uncertainty over the past few years.

No matter what causes a job opening, whether it is due to economic expansion or workers leaving their occupation for another, or leaving the labor force altogether, each opening equals an opportunity for another worker who is trying to enter the occupation. It also equals an opening that an employer needs to fill with a qualified applicant.

Among the occupations with employment of at least 20, about one-half of the 30 fastest growing occupations are health care related, including several types of therapists, technicians, and technologists. The region's aging population and in-migration of older residents are anticipated to create demand for health care occupational openings. The occupations with the most job openings remained similar to previous projections cycles, with retail salespersons, cashiers, waiters and waitresses, food preparation workers, and registered nurses topping the list (Table 2).

Only a handful of occupations are not expected to add any jobs between 2010 and 2020, with just 19 occupations fall into this category.

Among the 19 are postal workers, printing-related occupations, and travel agents. No surprises here. Larger occupations on this short list include forest and conservation technicians, telecommunications equipment and line installers and repairers, and photographers.

Many of the occupations with flat or declining employment levels from 2010 to 2020 actually do have job openings due to the need to replace workers leaving the occupation. They do not, however, have job openings related to growth. The number of growth openings for declining occupations is set at zero in the forecast.

Employment Department analysts reviewed each of the individual occupations and determined the most common education level sought by employers. This level is obviously not set in stone. It varies by employer and the state of the economy, among other factors. Required education and training levels are generally higher for job seekers when the economy is in a downturn and it is an "employers' market," while required levels are generally lower when the economy is expanding and employers are more desperate for workers.

Less than one-quarter of all projected job openings require a college degree (Graph 1). The majority of openings will require related work experience, or the occupations allow for adequate training while on the job. This training may last for a few days or several months until the worker is fluent with the job duties.

Answer: all of the above. New jobs expected over the period are spread among low, medium, and high wage categories, as defined in Graph 2. Fifty-nine percent of the total openings have a 2011 median wage of less than $33,000. On the high end, 19 percent of new jobs have a 2011 median wage of $50,000 or more.

Nearly all of the management, business, and financial jobs in 2010 are high wage (based on the median 2011 wage for each occupation in this category). High-wage jobs are concentrated in professional and related, and health care occupations. Professional jobs include computer occupations, engineers, science, and education occupations, among others.

On the other end of the spectrum, most of the service occupations and more than half of the sales and related category are low-wage jobs. Three broad categories have very few low-wage jobs: installation, maintenance, and repair; construction and extraction; and management, business, and financial.

The recession certainly put a damper on the growth trend experienced in the mid-2000s. Despite the current state of the economy, overall long-term trends are positive. Employment declines in some occupations will be offset by gains in others, but it will take time to bounce back from the recent downturn. Health care remains the bright spot on the horizon, and the baby boomers will eventually retire, creating many openings.

Detailed forecast tables are available on  www.QualityInfo.org. To find them, go to the Publications page and look for Regional Employment Projections by Industry and Occupations, 2010-2020. You will find employment data for 720 occupations and all 15 workforce regions.